Understanding transformation: KTU researchers contribute to the UN’s GEO-7 environmental outlook

In early December, the 7^th Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-7) was released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), marking a major milestone in global environmental assessment. The report, to which researchers from Kaunas University of Technology (KTU) contributed, calls on decision-makers, businesses, and societies at large to accelerate transformative action in response to interconnected environmental crises and to rethink the systems that shape today’s development pathways.

The 7th Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-7), prepared by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), is one of the world’s most comprehensive and authoritative assessments of the state of the global environment. Produced by 287 multi-disciplinary scientists from 82 countries, GEO-7 evaluates current environmental trends, identifies key drivers of change, and explores pathways for transforming human systems to address interconnected crises such as climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and resource depletion. The report provides a critical evidence base for environmental policymaking at global, regional, and national levels.

Two researchers from Kaunas University of Technology (KTU) – Prof. Audronė Telešienė and Prof. Aistė Balžekienė – contributed to the preparation of GEO-7 as members of the Behavioural, Social and Cultural Task Group. Prof. Telešienė served as a co-convener of the Task Group and lead author, while Prof. Balžekienė contributed as a lead author. Their work highlights the crucial role of social sciences and humanities in enabling environmental transformations, with a particular focus on human behaviour, social norms, and cultural contexts.

Below, Professors of KTU’s Faculty of Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities, Balžekienė and Telešienė present key insights from GEO-7, reflecting on the meaning of transformation, the levers for systemic change, and the relevance of behaviour-oriented pathways for Central and Eastern Europe.

Today’s world is deeply intertwined

Today, we stand at a similar turning point. We are again called to reconsider our pathways, to reflect on the systems we have built, and to innovate boldly so that these systems can be transformed. Only then – by recognising ourselves as an integral part of larger environmental systems – can we steer toward more sustainable, safer, and more resilient futures.

We encourage everyone engaged in futures thinking or involved in decision-making – across sectors and levels – to explore the report and its findings. GEO-7 offers a clear and comprehensive overview of current trends and shows that, although today’s policies are driven by good intentions and represent the best that governments, businesses, and communities are currently able to do, they are still not enough. Yet this is not a moment for pessimism, paralysis, or retreat from green ambitions.

We are again called to reconsider our pathways, to reflect on the systems we have built, and to innovate boldly so that these systems can be transformed. Only then – by recognising ourselves as an integral part of larger environmental systems – can we steer toward more sustainable, safer, and more resilient futures.

In today’s world, environmental crises are deeply intertwined with other crises. The war in Ukraine, for example, has devastating consequences for geopolitical security, while at the same time delivering a profound shock to natural systems – one that further intensifies existing environmental pressures. These overlapping crises remind us that there is no such thing as lasting economic prosperity under mounting environmental stress. When climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution accelerate, they erode not only ecosystems but also social cohesion, especially in the most vulnerable places, thereby compounding insecurity and instability across societies.

What is there to transform?

Achieving international environmental goals generates powerful cascading benefits for human security, public health, and the overall well-being of societies. In other words, acting decisively on environmental commitments is not only about protecting the planet – it is about safeguarding people and strengthening the foundations of thriving nations.

GEO-7 calls for accelerated transformations and provides a clear methodology for assessing available solution spaces.

Transformation goes beyond change or transition. Change adjusts parts of a system, and transition moves us from one state to another. Transformation, however, reshapes the system itself. And in case of the 7^th Global Environmental Outlook, several key systems need to be reshaped: the economic and financial system, material and waste system (circularity), energy system, and food system.

One of the most distinctive features of this report is its effort to bring together technology-oriented and behaviour-oriented solutions. Policy prescriptions are plentiful in many analyses and reports. However, GEO-7 speaks directly to how transformations can actually be achieved. And, of course, there are no simple answers.

The report examines in detail the levers, broadly understood as areas of intentional action, that help us understand how to enable the transformations. These include economic and financial levers, individual and collective action lever, knowledge and innovation, governance, and capabilities levers.

Such a precise articulation of the levers, combined with their broad scope, truly allows decision-makers and change-makers across sectors to identify the solution spaces most relevant to their work. Whether you are an NGO leader, a member of a corporate board, a parliamentarian, or a city mayor, GEO-7 becomes an accessible tool for locating actionable and effective solution spaces within your own domain.

Role of social sciences and humanities

An important and often overlooked point is that we cannot rely on systems transformation without simultaneously addressing social norms, culturally grounded habits, and the social systems that shape governance and economic structures. Most importantly, we must consider the behaviour of individuals and large groups. For transformations to take root, shifts in other systems must occur alongside changes in individual lifestyles and household decisions.

For example, the slow adoption of renewables in the 1990s, despite significant technological advancements of those days, reflected the fact that societies were not yet prepared to shift their habits, norms, and expectations around energy use.

In this sense, it is particularly interesting to examine how people across European countries think about making more substantial adjustments to their own behaviour for environmental sustainability and circularity, and whether they are prepared to sacrifice aspects of their standard of living for the sake of the environment.

The potential for behavioural transformations across different societies depends on a wide range of psychosocial, structural, and contextual factors. It is important not to oversimplify by assuming that behaviour can be transformed through one or two incentives alone. To understand the current levels of societal readiness and willingness to act, we need a synthesis of social science knowledge and data – something that is still greatly lacking. This is an essential direction for further social research.

Societies are different with respect to behavioural transformation

There is, however, some interesting available survey data. Without claiming to provide a comprehensive assessment, we include here a short overview of cumulative International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) Environment data from the 2010 and 2020–2023 surveys for European countries. These data illustrate how willing different populations are to cut their standard of living for the environment, and how they perceive their own ability to act. The chart shows the percentage of respondents who strongly or somewhat disagree that “it is too difficult to do much about the environment” (Y-axis), meaning they have a higher sense of environmental efficacy. The X-axis shows the share of people who report being very or fairly willing to cut their standard of living for the environment. Full datasets can be accessed through the GESIS data archive or other social science data infrastructures within CESSDA-ERIC, including LiDA in Lithuania.

These may include improving the affordability, accessibility, and convenience of environmentally friendly alternatives, as well as strengthening supportive infrastructures and services.

However, data also show that accelerated transformations across systems require broader, more integrated approaches. They cannot rely solely on shifts in individual or collective behaviour but must draw on the full range of levers outlined earlier, each of which varies in relevance depending on the system in question (for example, energy or food) and on the specific geographic regional context.

GEO-7 and regional pathways for Central and Eastern Europe

Armed conflicts are an important environmental threat that often worsens other negative trends. Land degradation in this region is intensified largely by monoculture agricultural practices and low recognition of the benefits of sustainable agriculture. Eastern Europe has a strong network of protected areas (such as Natura 2000 and Emerald Network), and still, the region suffers from underfinancing and a lack of law enforcement. Another significant driver of biodiversity loss is pollution, largely originating from unsustainable urban growth and energy-intensive heavy industries, including coal mining.

Out of 10 EU countries with the highest potential electricity production by prosumers, four countries are from Eastern Europe, as indicated by the European Environmental Agency.

GEO-7 presents an innovative approach in combining technology-focused and behavioural-focused pathways for the transformation of different systems for solving global environmental crises. The report also includes the recommendations for regionally relevant levers and provides the outlook with the predicted changes if these transformations are implemented. Here, we briefly review relevant behaviour-focused levers for Eastern Europe that are tailored to the specific socio-economic, cultural, and governance contexts of the region.

In the behaviour-change transformation pathway, social and cultural levers include creating social behaviour change communication strategies to influence social norms. Behavioural changes become long-term and sustainable only if they become embedded in the social norms and values. For example, recycling behaviours are usually fostered via introducing financial incentives, like fee reductions for households that introduce waste recycling bins. However, the behavioural change can be regarded as sustainable only when it remains beyond the duration of financial incentives.

Behaviour-focused solutions for circular and energy systems in Eastern Europe

To increase the development of circularity in Central and Eastern Europe, it should be reinforced primarily by increased awareness of consumers to make circular lifestyle choices. In this region, public support for green policies is relatively low compared to the rest of Europe; therefore, the focus should be on strengthening capabilities and personal motivation.

The Eastern European region varies significantly in its achievement of energy transition goals. For example, the Northern Europe sub-region (including the Baltic States) is experiencing a rapid shift towards renewables, driven by EU Green Deal targets and energy security concerns. Policy incentives for small-scale energy production at individual households (prosumerism) are increasingly integrated into national policies and have significantly strengthened individual motivation, particularly in the context of the recent energy crisis. Prosumerism means the possibility for energy consumers to become energy producers, typically through renewable sources such as solar panels. The Eastern European region has a large potential of prosumerism. For example, out of 10 EU countries with the highest potential electricity production by prosumers, four countries are from Eastern Europe, as indicated by the European Environmental Agency. Also, there is a significant potential in the region to shift prosumerism from individual to collective action via establishing energy communities.

Solution levers for behavioural-focused transformation pathway for Eastern Europe include (and are not limited to): raising awareness of the benefits of lower energy lifestyles and of food health and sustainable diets; enabling availability of sustainable mobility; changing food industry practices to encourage sustainable consumer behaviours; improving science literacy and environmental citizenship in society, and others.