Author, Institution: Vytautas Džiuvė, Lithuanian Energy Institute
Science area, field of science: Social Sciences, Economics, S004
Scientific Supervisor: Chief Researcher Dr. Vidas Lekavičius (Lithuanian Energy Institute, Social Sciences, Economics, S004)
Dissertation Defence Board of Economics Science Field:
Prof. Dr. Vytautas Snieška (Kaunas University of Technology, Social Sciences, Economics, S004) – chairperson
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Asta Baliutė (Kaunas University of Technology, Social Sciences, Economics, S004)
Prof. Dr. Daiva Dumčiuvienė (Kaunas University of Technology, Social Sciences, Economics, S004)
Prof. Dr. Astrida Miceikienė (Vytautas Magnus University, Social Sciences, Economics, S004)
Prof. Dr. Anna Mutule (Riga Technical University, Latvia, Technological Sciences, Energetics and Power Engineering, T006)
Dissertation defence meeting will be at the conference room at Lithuanian Energy Institute (Breslaujos 3 – 202, Kaunas)
The doctoral dissertation is available at the library of Kaunas University of Technology (Gedimino 50, Kaunas) and on the internet
© V. Džiuvė, 2026 “The text of the thesis may not be copied, distributed, published, made public, including by making it publicly available on computer networks (Internet), reproduced in any form or by any means, including, but not limited to, electronic, mechanical or other means. Pursuant to Article 25(1) of the Law on Copyright and Related Rights of the Republic of Lithuania, a person with a disability who has difficulties in reading a document of a thesis published on the Internet, and insofar as this is justified by a particular disability, shall request that the document be made available in an alternative form by e-mail to doktorantura@ktu.lt.”
Annotation: This dissertation identifies the uncertainties affecting the district heating (DH) market and establishes a methodology for their assessment, specifically tailored to the case of Vilnius. The theoretical analysis reveals that DH development is strongly influenced by regulatory frameworks, market structures, and uncertainty factors. A hierarchical uncertainty-control pyramid is proposed to classify controllable, semi-controllable, and uncontrollable uncertainties and support decision-making during the energy transition. The investigation of existing energy modeling tools reveals the limitations of deterministic simulation and optimization approaches in reflecting the dynamics of district heating markets and investment risks. To address these limitations, a stochastic approach methodology is established, which enables the identification of financially viable investment portfolios, by assessing different policy scenarios under the execution of Monte Carlo uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. This dissertation demonstrates the application of a partial equilibrium economic model to the selected Vilnius city DH system. Uncertainty analysis indicates significant potential for integrating renewable and waste heat technologies to maximize investor profit, ensure adequate heat auction prices, and reduce CO2 emissions. Sensitivity analysis identifies future hydrogen price dynamics as the most influential uncertainty factor. The research provides practical guidance for policymakers, operators, and investors and is applicable to DH systems beyond Vilnius. The framework also demonstrates the feasibility of an hourly auction system, enabling more reliable and efficient operation of the DH market.
18th of September, 2026, 14:00
Conference room at Lithuanian Energy Institute (Breslaujos 3 – 202)
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