A military threat in a broad sense is understood as a crisis situation in a country that directly affects not only all sectors of industry and the economy without exception, but also the behaviour of the population. Three main features of a crisis are distinguished: the presence of a real threat, the factor of surprise and a short decision-making time.
Inevitably, each such crisis leads to changes in economic sectors, including the transport sector, because the previous status quo becomes impossible to maintain. Many similar crises are difficult to predict and may never occur again under the same conditions, therefore one cannot rely solely on the practice of other countries – a solution developed during one crisis may not be directly applicable to another crisis. The three main stages of crisis management are prevention and preparedness, response to the crisis and in the post-crisis period (lessons learned, analysis, etc.). Within the scope of the proposed topic, the transport sector would be analysed only through the prism of preventive preparedness and response forecasting.
In order to identify the transformational changes in the Lithuanian transport sector and its infrastructure in the event of a real military threat, the related weak points, operational capabilities, limitations and action procedures, the project goal is formulated as follows: to create guidelines for an integrated assessment mechanism and to prepare an analysis of the activities of road, air and railway transport systems and their infrastructure utilisation in the event of a real threat, a factor of surprise and a short decision-making time. This would include: an analysis of the road capacity of the country’s main cities in the event of evacuation, identifying critical areas; discussion of weak points in communication between cities and the role of freight road transport and preparation of recommendations; forecasting changes in the activities of airports and railway rolling stock, with the Lithuanian military taking over their management in the event of war; identification of weak points in the airport and railway network.
Project funding:
Research Council of Lithuania, Need-driven Research Projects
Project results:
1. Development of detailed guidelines for the Integrated Assessment Mechanism, defining procedures, protocols and criteria for assessing the impact of military threats on the transport sector. These guidelines will provide a structured framework for assessments and informed decisions to be made during a crisis, ensuring a coordinated and effective response.
2. Identification of key risks and vulnerabilities in the road, air and rail transport systems, including critical infrastructure, key nodes and potential points of failure, for risk identification and mitigation strategies. Development of strategies and measures to mitigate these risks and increase the resilience of the transport sector to military threats and disruptions.
3. Transport systems performance analysis, which would include an analysis of the performance of road, air and rail transport systems under simulated military threat scenarios, including infrastructure use, capacity constraints and response capabilities. Assessment of the readiness and effectiveness of transport networks in supporting evacuation, mobility and logistics operations during a crisis.
4. Development of contingency plans and preparedness measures adapted to different threat scenarios, contingency factors and decision-making time-frames. Integration of risk assessments, response protocols and resource allocation strategies to ensure timely and coordinated actions in the event of a military threat.
5. Formulation of recommendations and good practices for increasing the resilience and preparedness of the Lithuanian transport sector to military threats. These recommendations may include investments in infrastructure, technological upgrading, policy reforms and capacity building initiatives aimed at strengthening the sector’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions.
6. Establishment of communication and coordination protocols among relevant stakeholders, including government agencies, transport authorities, emergency response services and military forces. Clear definition of roles, responsibilities and information-sharing mechanisms to facilitate effective cooperation and decision-making during crises.
Period of project implementation: 2026-02-02 - 2027-07-31
Project coordinator: Kaunas University of Technology
