“Warm season thermal regime of Lithuanian river water and its forecast in the context of climate change” Doctoral Thesis

Author, institution: Aldona Jurgelėnaitė, Lithuanian Energy Institute

Science area, field: Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – 04T

The Doctoral Dissertation is available at the libraries of Kaunas University of Technology (K. Donelaičio St. 20, Kaunas) and Lithuanian Energy Institute (Breslaujos g. 3, Kaunas).

Scientific Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Habil. Brunonas GAILIUŠIS (Lithuanian Energy Institute, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – 04T)

Dissertation defence board of Environmental Engineering Science Field:

Prof. Dr. Habil. Jurgis Kazimieras Staniškis (Kaunas University of Technology, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – 04T) – chairman
Prof. Dr. Arūnas BUKANTIS (Vilnius university, Physical Sciences, Physical geography – 06P)
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Jolanta DVARIONIENĖ (Kaunas University of Technology, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – 04T)
Prof. Dr. Violeta MAKAREVIČIENĖ (Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – 04T)
Prof. Dr. Žaneta STASIŠKIENĖ (Kaunas University of Technology, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – 04 T).

Oficial opponents:

Prof. Dr. Inga DAILIDIENĖ (Klaipėda University, Physical Sciences, Physical geography – 06P)
Prof. Dr. Arvydas POVILAITIS (Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – 04T)

Annotation:

Most of Lithuanian river water thermal regime studies were focused on the assessment of river water temperature changes due to impact of energy facilities and reservoirs on lotic biota. Only few research works related to water temperature change can be found in Lithuania. River water temperature predictions have never been done in country.
The aim of this research is to assess the changes of Lithuanian river water thermal regime and to identify its potential trends for the end of the 21^st century (2071–2100) as well as to evaluate heat runoff (amount of heat energy) of Lithuanian rivers. Object of the Research is the thermal regime of Lithuanian rivers during the warm period (May-October) of the year.
A detailed analysis of warm season (May-October) water temperature data of Lithuanian rivers for the period from 1945 to 2010 using a unified methodology was performed. Lithuanian rivers were classified into three groups (warm, cool and cold water) according to the warm season water temperature. A contour map of warm season (May-October) river water temperature, which allows the evaluation of water temperature for the unexplored Lithuanian rivers, was compiled. Some climatic and local physical-geographical factors affecting the warm season (May-October) river water temperatures were identified. Heat runoff (heat resources) of warm season of a year (May-October) of major Lithuanian rivers was calculated using water discharge and water temperature data. The impact of climate change on the water temperature of Lithuanian rivers was assessed performing prediction of the thermal regime for the end of the 21^st century (2071–2100). Prediction of the warm season thermal regime of Lithuanian rivers for the end of the 21^st century was carried out to assess the impact of climate change. Prediction of water thermal regime was made using hydrological modelling and ECHAM and HadCM3 global climate models under A2 and B1 emission scenarios.