Author, Institution: Vytautas Akstinas, Lithuanian Energy Institute
Science area, field of science: Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering, T004
Scientific Supervisor: Dr. Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė (Lithuanian Energy Institute, Technological
Sciences, Environmental Engineering – T004).
Dissertation Defence Board of Environmental Engineering Science Field:
Prof. Dr. Habil. Jurgis Kazimieras Staniškis (Kaunas University of Technology, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – T004) – chairman;
Prof. Dr. Inga Dailidienė (Klaipėda University, Natural Sciences, Physical Geography – N006);
Prof. Dr. Gintaras Denafas (Kaunas University of Technology, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – T004);
Prof. Dr. Jolita Kruopienė (Kaunas University of Technology, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – T004);
Prof. Dr. Habil. Tomasz Okruszko (Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Technological Sciences, Environmental Engineering – T004).
The doctoral dissertation is available at the library of Kaunas University of Technology (K. Donelaičio St. 20, Kaunas) and Lithuanian Energy Institute (Breslaujos g. 3, 44403 Kaunas, Lithuania).
The extreme hydrological phenomena of rivers (spring floods and flash floods of summer and autumn seasons) were carried out according to the geographical and climatic conditions of Lithuania. The statistical methods were applied for analysis of the flood patterns changes in the past and hydrological modelling were used for floods projections in 21st century. EU Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) laying down the framework for Community action in the field of water policy and directive on the assessment and management of flood risks (2007/60/EC) require that country policy makers and decision-makers take into account the changes in water resources in relation to climate change when assessing the risks of future floods and invite them to regularly update their projections using the newest generation climate scenarios. In this work, the created methodology of floods projection (adjusted in Lithuanian conditions) based on RCP climate scenarios allowed to assess the potential impact of climate change on spring floods and flash floods of summer-autumn season in near (2016-2035) and far (2081-2100) future. After the evaluation of uncertainties of projections, the recommendations and proposals for the preparation of documents for the protection and management of resources of water bodies were created. Also mentioned methodology for projections of spring floods and flash floods of summer-autumn season can be applied for the river catchments from the South-Eastern Baltic Sea region with similar physico-geographical and climatic features, like in selected river catchments of this thesis.