Author, institution: Eglė Keizerienė, Kauno University of Technology
Scientific Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Habil. Žaneta SIMANAVIČIENĖ (Kaunas University of Technology, Social Sciences, Economics, 04S).
Science area, field: Social Sciences, Economics, 04S
The Doctoral Dissertation is available at the libraries of Kaunas University of Technology (K. Donelaičio St. 20, Kaunas), Klaipėda University (K. Donelaičio a. 3, Klaipėda) and Lithuanian Energy Institute (Breslaujos g. 3, Kaunas).
Dissertation Defence Board of Economics Science Field:
Prof. Dr. Vytautas SNIEŠKA, Kaunas University of Technology, Social sciences, Economics (04S) – chairman;
Prof. Dr. Rasa KANAPICKIENĖ, Vilnius University, Social sciences, Economics (04S);
Prof. Dr. Rytis KRUŠINSKAS, Kaunas University of Technology, Social sciences, Economics (04S);
Prof. Dr. Maija ŠENFELDE, Riga Technical University, Social sciences, Economics (04S);
Prof. Dr. Dalia ŠTREIMIKIENĖ, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Social sciences, Economics (04S).
Annotation:
The aim of the Doctoral Dissertation is to create a complex evaluation model for the RE “bubble” by integrating fundamental and subjective factors and indicators reflecting them, which will then allow a quantitative assessment of the extent of the impact of the RE “bubble” on the RE price. According to the analysis of scientific literature, an adjusted RE “bubble” concept is presented. The scientific work presents not only the main theories of the RE “bubble”, but also new ones. Following the analysis of factors of the formation of the price “bubble”, as well as the review of the main evaluation methods, indicators were selected to determine whether there is a “bubble” in the Lithuanian RE market. The system for the identification of relations between the indicators and modeling of certain scenarios by the results obtained, was developed. The system includes indicators that show macroeconomic factors, structural changes, credit conditions and expectations among market participants. An empirical study of the application of the RE “bubble” complex evaluation model was carried out using Lithuania‘s economic and RE market data of 2004-2014. According to the results, changes in the Lithuanian RE market in 2004-2008 cannot be explained solely by fundamental factors, while the dynamics of indicators in 2010-2014 can be explained by the impact of fundamental factors. On that basis, it follows that there was a certain price “bubble” in the Lithuanian RE market in 2004-2008.
