Author, Institution: Audris Narbutas, Kaunas University of Technology
Science area, field of science: Social Sciences, Political Sciences, S002
Research Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Vaidas Morkevičius (Kaunas University of Technology, Social Sciences, Political Sciences, S002)
Dissertation Defence Board of Political Sciences Science Field:
Prof. Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas (Vytautas Magnus University, Social Sciences, Political Sciences, S002) – chairperson
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Jurga Bučaitė-Vilkė (Vytautas Magnus University, Social Sciences, Sociology, S005)
Prof. Dr. Raimondas Ibenskas (Bergen university, Norway, Social Sciences, Political Sciences, S002)
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ainius Lašas (Kaunas University of Technology, Social Sciences, Political Sciences, S002)
Prof. Dr. Ainė Ramonaitė (Vilnius University, Social Sciences, Political Sciences, S002)
Dissertation defence meeting will be at Rectorate Hall of Kaunas University of Technology (K. Donelaičio 73-402, Kaunas)
The doctoral dissertation is available at the library of Kaunas University of Technology (Gedimino 50, Kaunas) and on the internet: A. Narbutas el. dissertation.pdf
© A. Narbutas, 2026 “The text of the thesis may not be copied, distributed, published, made public, including by making it publicly available on computer networks (Internet), reproduced in any form or by any means, including, but not limited to, electronic, mechanical or other means. Pursuant to Article 25(1) of the Law on Copyright and Related Rights of the Republic of Lithuania, a person with a disability who has difficulties in reading a document of a thesis published on the Internet, and insofar as this is justified by a particular disability, shall request that the document be made available in an alternative form by e-mail to doktorantura@ktu.lt.”
Annotation: Three direct mayoral elections have already been held in Lithuania, and the fourth will take place in March 2027. However, there has been very little research in Lithuania that systematically analyzes direct mayoral elections and electoral behaviour during these elections. Furthermore, the incumbency advantage phenomenon, which is well studied in Western countries, has received limited scholarly attention in Lithuania. Incumbency advantage refers to the electoral benefit that office-holding candidates have over challengers seeking the same position. Previous studies have revealed that a phenomenon of hyper-accountability operates at the national level in Lithuania. This means that governing parties are punished by voters even when the economy performs relatively well. Thus, Lithuania resembles developing countries, where an incumbency disadvantage phenomenon is often observed. By using a regression discontinuity design and comparing mayoral re-election rates with those observed in Western countries, this dissertation demonstrates that the incumbency advantage phenomenon operates in local government. This finding suggests that Lithuania resembles South Korea, where incumbency advantage and incumbency disadvantage manifest differently across levels of government. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and drawing upon theories of retrospective voting and primary elections, the dissertation analyzes the impact of term in office, changes in the quality-of-life index, a favourable municipal type, low electoral competition, good reputation, and the ability to unite different groups of voters on the electoral success of mayors seeking re-election in the 2015, 2019, and 2023 direct mayoral elections.